While the Missouri/Nebraska game might feaure higher ranked teams (on average), that game only determines the winner of the Big 12 North. This game could determine the winner of the Big 10 and the automatic BCS bid if Michigan State can pull of the win in Iowa. Because it's unlikely Minnesota, Purdue or Penn State will be much of a challenge for Sparty.
That being said, I'm taking the Hawkeyes at home in this one. I'm just not convinced Michigan State is the 5th best team in the country. And an 8-point win at Northwestern last week doesn't instill much confidence.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
IOWA HAWKEYES